On the Demographic and Social Statistics of Modern Russia: Lies, Damned Lies, or Statistics?
Aaron Ivan
Abstract
This article presents a mathematical analysis of Russia's demographic and social statistics. It combines official Rosstat data with a critical view of mortality trends, population size, and infrastructure. The work raises the question of the reliability of Russian demographic statistics and challenges the official population figure of approximately 140 million people. The analysis covers mortality data (2010–2024), the population of the RSFSR (1984–1990) and the Russian Federation, as well as the networks of schools, pre-school institutions, polyclinics, and housing construction. The key finding is that the approximation of the RF population for 2025 yields a value of approximately 80 million people, based on average mortality rates and a comparison of social infrastructure load norms.
