Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Flood Risk Assessment in Informal Settlements: A Case Study from Northern Morocco
Ikram Ouakkas*, Asmae Taftafe*, Najib bahi and Adnane Habib
ABSTRACT
Floods are among the most devastating natural hazards, particularly in informal urban settlements where infrastructure and planning are often inadequate. This study focuses on the Chraka area, an informal settlement located in the Tangier-Tétouan-Al Hoceïma region of northern Morocco, with the aim of assessing flood risk impact using a geospatial-based approach that integrates satellite imagery, hydrological data, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The methodology involves preparing flood-determining criteria within a GIS framework, applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) used to assign weights to each factor. The resulting risk map delineates flood-prone zones, which were overlaid with building footprint data to classify structures into three risk levels: critical, moderate, and low. Although field validation was not conducted, the study provides essential insights for local authorities and stakeholders to support risk prevention and urban planning strategies. The approach demonstrates the potential of geospatial tools to serve as decision-support systems in contexts where field validation is limited. Future research could enhance predictive capabilities by integrating deep learning models for flood forecasting in similar contexts.
